Saturday, March 02, 2013

BATTLE FOR THE SEC IN GAINESVILLE- @ Florida

I remember a similar situation there about 2 years ago where we needed to have a good showing (not necessarily win) to enhance our NCAAT chances. What we did was lay an egg we couldn't recover from and thus ended up in the NIT. Barring a miracle I suspect history will repeat itself.
This game is obviously important to both teams as the winner gets a step up in winning the SEC regular season (UF would pretty much clinch it with a win). This game is also huge for UF as their hopes for a #1 seed in the NCAAT hangs in the balance. Us, a 12 seed is what we are striving for (or a #1 NIT seed).

I wish we could've played this game last week when the Gators were shorthanded, but that's not going to be the case today as for the first time in about a month the Gators are at full strength.

Gator season stats

So... what scares me about this game? I dunno, maybe their .384 from 3 AS A TEAM or  49% from the field overall. They don't miss a lot of shots, so any offensive lull we might have in this game would absolutely kill us. Patric Young and Will Yeguete (first game back since @ Arkansas) inside are gonna cause havoc for Gueye and Jacobs (and Pollard), Scottie Wilbekin will push our transition D, and Michael Frazier, Erik Murray and Mike Rosario will test us from outside.

The good news? Kenny Boynton continues to struggle with his shot. Cover the others and let him fire away. :)

More #s
- +5.4 rebound margin
- 73.1 PPG
- Defensively: .375 FG/30% 3pt FG and 53.5 PPG

To be blunt, this is a HORRIBLE matchup for us, but it seems like every time I say this we end up playing out of our minds and keeping it close/pulling the upset.

Game time is noon EST on ESPN. I hope DJC pulls us through somehow.

9 comments:

RichTide said...

Once again officials afraid of inciting the home fans and making sure the non-Coleman home team gets their home court advantage. 18 fouls to 6, 20 FT's to 6, although Bama isn't helping themselves only making 1-6. Last series perfect example. Murphy climbs Randolph's back, no call. Moussa has all ball, foul. Then Randolph gets called for a charge while Young takes a hop to jump in front of him. Wow. This is worse than usual...

bobbyjack said...

NIT bound unless UF takes the SECT off. 5 points in the last 10 minutes... AUful!

RichTide said...

Bama outscored 27-7 in final 13 min. Ouch. Unfortunately, that's what Gators do to everyone and Bama didn't seem ready for it or able to adjust. Not sure if it's simply talent overcoming anything you try, lack of floor leadership from the players (Steele doesn't seem the "on court coach" he was earlier), or Grant's oft-mentioned coaching shortfalls (roster management, ineffective big men play). Thought Grant was outcoached in the second half (Donovan shut down Releford and recognized refs were going to let his players be extremely physical on both ends of the court) but to his credit the team has played better last 2 games. After LSU game when he said "this team will be ready to play, I guarantee it" I thought they would finish the season in a downward spiral. Good to see they are still fighting but unless they win SECT they are fighting for #1 seed in NIT. And lose to Ole Miss, good chance they end up as #5 or 6 seed in SECT, making chances of winning SECT almost zero (have to win 5 straight).

Msmilie said...

Just can't seem to beat these guys. I think Donovan's record against
Bama is now 18-5. As far as today's game goes. Bama is a young team.
They go up 8 points, they thought the game was over and took their foot
off Florida's neck. A one-sided FTA advantage and Bama's infamous
scoring drought didn't help either. There's no doubt this team is much
better than what we saw earlier this season (the team in December and
even January would have been blown out today), but they've got to
develop a killer mentality and put games away when the opportunity
presents itself. Now Ole Miss becomes a must win.

RichTide said...

It was the one common negative VCU fans said about Grant when I went to the Bama-VCU game, his teams took their foot off the gas when they had a "big' lead. Lacked killer instinct. It's what they love about Shaka Smart. Since then, have been following their season. Today, they were up by 20+ on #20 Butler at the half and won by 32. We can't even beat an AUful Barn team by 32.

crimsontider said...

I am proud of the way we fought, and think that we can make the NCAAT. I thought we started out playing with a chip on our shoulder and then tightened up after the 8 point lead. The refs were awful, they were just not going to let Alabama win. There has been a 54-19 combined FT discrepancy in Alabama's last 2 road games, which is absurd. After today, I defidently feel we can beat Florida, and two weeks in Nashville. If we win our last two games, and then make it to the final game of the SECT, we will probably be in. Unless Ole Miss, blows this game they are playing with $tate, tuesday's game could be a virtual play in game for the NCAAT. Roll Tide.

crimsontider said...

Disagree, if we win our last two games than get two in the SECT, which would likely include a win over Mizzou or UK, that would give us 23 wins, and likely put us in Dayton. I certainly feel we can win the SECT.

crimsontider said...

And Ole Miss lost, dang that hurts our RPI.

crimsontider said...

The Sec is going to be a 3 bid league, Mizzou, and Florida are locks, and you can cross Ole Miss off now. It will be between Bama, Kentucky, and Tennessee for that third bid.