Monday, March 18, 2013

Final Four prediction (NCAA not NIT)

Louisville (1). I think they have a great draw with only 1 real landmine... the St Louis Billikens. I don't see another team in the bracket that can beat them (yes, I see Duke and Michigan St in the bottom half).

Arizona (6). I see the region as wide open since I don't trust Gonzaga past the 2nd... uh 3rd round matchup with Pitt. Zona/New Mexico should be a great 2nd... uh 3rd round match while I see the 1st... uh 2nd round winner of the Ole Miss/Wisconsin game in the round of 16. I can't put my finger on it, but I don't have faith in Ohio St either.

Georgetown (2). Only because I think Kansas gets tripped up in the round of 16 by the VCU/Michigan winner. UCLA/UF would be a great 2nd.. uh 3rd round matchup if UCLA was coming in healthy. Jordan Adams is doneski which pretty much ends any chance of UCLA going too far in the tourney. Heck, they could lose to a struggling Fighting Tubby Smith's of Minnesota in the 1st... uh 2nd round (I hate how they re-termed the rounds). Yes, I omitted UF... when they are on they are tough, but they've dropped too many eggs lately to consider.

Miami (2). It took me a while to believe, but now I do. Regular season and tourney ACC champs? How many times has that happened in the ACC for teams not named Duke or North Carolina? I'm sold on this group of upperclassmen and I think they have the experience and drive to dump Indiana in the Elite 8. Butler or Marquette might give them hell in the Sweet Sixteen, but they'll survive. As for the top half of that bracket... Indiana has the most talent, but seemed to slip up more than they should have. Going 0-2 vs Wisconsin (who has beaten them 12 straight) doesn't make me a believer in them. I could see Syracuse knocking them out in the 2nd week.

Final Four
Louisville over Arizona
Georgetown over Miami

Louisville over Georgetown

If you follow this and win I expect 10% of your winning. If your bracket ends up in the dumpster because of this, it's YOUR OWN DAMN FAULT!

I hope to attend at the very least one Saturday session of the Final Four. We shall see how much tickets are going for them.


crimsontider said...

Final 4: Duke, Florida, Ohio State, Indiana.
National championship: Duke over Indiana
Notable predictions: Saint Louis over Louisville, and Bucknell to the sweet 16.

Msmilie said...

I still call it the first round. Four games in Dayton is not a round. I don't know why they can't just call it what it is, an opening round or play-in round.

Final Four: Duke, Gonzaga (I believe in the Zags!), Georgetown, Marquette

National Championship: Gonzaga over Marquette (I believe in the Zags!)

Notable predictions (I stole crimsontider's format): In a year defined by the upset, I don't see a ton of them in the first round. Second round and sweet sixteen is where things will get cooking. Do you guys see any notable upsets involving seeds 1-4 in the first round?

I do like the Zags, but they will have a tough match-up in the second round if Pitt advances. If they can get past that game, I think their road is manageable.

Louisville, Indiana and Kansas all have very difficult roads to Atlanta, and each of those schools have had stretches this season where they were very beatable. Louisville in particular was done no favors by the committee. They will play one of the top two rebounding schools in the second round and either a combination of the A-10 champ, the Pac-12 tournament champ (Oregon got hosed on their seed) or a Big 12 contender with a player in Marcus Smart who is capable of carrying a team. And that's just through the first three rounds. Duke or Michigan State potentially lurk on the other side. I do believe Louisville is the best overall team coming into the tournament but, as we all know, the best team doesn't always win this thing.

As usual, my bracket will probably be dust by Thursday night.