Tuesday, November 05, 2013

Game by Game Season Predictions

Just for fun, I thought I would look at the schedule and predict the outcome of each game. I think we usually do this every year, and I'm notoriously awful at it, but here goes.

Oklahoma (Dallas) W- A young but decent team that will be very well coached.  This "neutral" site, will be more like a road game.  Nevertheless, I'm going with a W, but could see it going either way.

Texas Tech- W, in the most boring game in the history of college basketball.  Tubby's defense will shut us down, but they won't have enough offense to beat us at home.  This game may not get out of the 30s.

Stillman (NIT)- W.
Georgia St (NIT)-W.-  Note, I'm predicting GSU beats McNeese State.  I'm picking us to win, but this one worries me.

Duke (NIT, NYC)- L.  Conventional wisdom says the better team wins, but this isn't an awful matchup for us.  Duke is more athletic than they've been in recent years, but they may struggle early before they put it all together.

Rutgers (NIT consolation game, NYC)- W.  Both games in NY will feel like a road game, but I think we are the better team.  Note, if we play Arizona for some reason, I think we get killed.  I'm predicting 1-1 in NY either way.

North Florida. W
Charleson Southern- W
Wichita State- L
Xavier- W  In 2 tough games back to back, I think we get one of them at home.
@USF- W, A game nobody will watch because the SEC Championship game is going on.
@ UCLA- L.  Long travel, road game against a decent team.  I hope I'm wrong because I'm going to this game.
Robert Morris- W, but could be a trap game.
Vandy- W
@UGA- W.  Fox's days are numbered in Athens.
m$u- W.
@Mizzou- L.  Could see this going either way though.
Florida -L  Really hope I'm wrong here, Coach Grant needs to get over this hurdle, and it's not likely to happen in Gainesville.
LSU- L.  The Tigers are going to surprise some people this year.
@auburn- W.  After last year...Never again.
Tennessee-W We always play well against them, this will be considered a mild upset.
@Arkansas- L.  I think the Hogs finally start showing some life this year
@Florida - L.  They are our new Vandy, except they are always good.
Ole Miss- W, but this could go either way.  I'm thinking Eminem is back in jail by this point though.
@South Carolina. W.  Martin will have them improving, but we get the win.
@aTm, W. Could go either way though.
Mizzou- W, Haith's seat is on fire
@ Ole Miss. L.  We don't win in Oxford.
auburn- W.  Best crowd of the year, but everyone leaves after halftime.
@ Kentucky. L(ol)
Arkansas. W- Could go either way, but Releford refuses to lose on senior night.

9-3 going into conference play (given our schedule, that would be fantastic.) 11-7 in SEC play for a 20-10 overall record.  Win a game or 2 in the SEC tournament and we are in as a 9-10 seed thanks to a strong RPI.


bobbyjack said...

Glad you did this instead of me so here goes (think you are missing one game [9-3] OOC):

7-5 OOC (OU, Duke, Wichita St, @USF, @UCLA)
10-8 in conference play
17-13 Overall.

DJC said...

I missed the Texas Tech game somehow, edited accordingly. Pretty safe going 2-3 games worse than I pick, that's usually a safe bet.

Msmilie said...

Based on what happened last night, I'm a bit hesitant to do this now........but

Oklahoma - L - I was leaning towards loss prior to last night. Levi's status is unknown. Both teams are having to adjust to some players in new roles and new players period. I expect this one to be close.

Texas Tech - W - I think Bama at home is the better team. However, Tech's best players are in the frontcourt. The rebounding numbers better improve for Bama.

Stillman - W - These guys were the tough victory in an exhibition game last season (76-68). Hopefully that's not the case this year.

Georgia State - W - A legit team. If Bama doesn't bring their A game, they'll spend the rest of the NIT event in Tuscaloosa. However, if Alabama is seriously going to make a bid for the tournament this season, they have to win games like this.

Duke - L - I just want to see the team compete against this caliber of competition.

Rutgers - W - Unless Bama somehow ends up facing both Arizona and Duke, it's important they at least go 1-1 in New York.

North Florida - W

@South Florida - W - Tricky game, but winnable.

Charleston Southern - W - Well-coached team with some veterans. Unfortunately, these are not gimmes for Alabama at this point.

Wichita State - W - This one should draw a respectable crowd. Wichita is very good, well-coached, but I don't think their guys are heads and shoulders above ours from a physical standpoint. I think our guys can get it done.

Xavier - W - Same as above. Bama needs to win these high profile home games.

@UCLA - L - I think our guys match up well with UCLA. I'm going with the home team here, but a Bama win won't surprise me.

Robert Morris - W- Another tough one. The team that got outworked last night by West Georgia better figure it out quickly because this non-conference schedule is no joke.

Vanderbilt - W - Something tells me Kevin Stallings is going to find a way to keep these guys competitive.

@Georgia - L - Bama may be the better team but they always seem to have a few head scratching games each season.

Mississippi State - W - One of those home games you've just got to win.

@Missouri - L - Not sure how stable Mizzou is at the top, but they've got talent.

Florida - W - They're a bit of a mess right now, but I suspect Florida will be back in shape by January. Still, law of averages, right???

LSU - L - That LSU frontcourt is freaking scary.

@Auburn - L - Scoring more than 37 points would be a start.

Tennessee - W - I like the chances for a win at home.

@Arkansas - L - I agree with DJC. I think this is the year Mike Anderson starts to get things pointed in the right direction.

@Florida - L - Beat them once, maybe. Twice? Nah.

Ole Miss - W - Even with Marshall Henderson, people are selling short just how important Holloway and Buckner were to that team last season.

@South Carolina - W - The team doesn't need too many head scratchers.

@Texas A&M - W - I think it's vital that Bama at least goes 2-2 in the Georgia, Auburn, Carolina and A&M road games as I think all four teams could be 10th or lower in the standings at the end of the season.

Missouri - W - They could be a bubble team so both games with Mizzou might loom large.

@Ole Miss - L - We will know that Bama has arrived as a program when they consistently win at a dump like the Tad Pad.

Auburn - W - Another one of those home games you just have to win.

@Kentucky - L - I don't think Kentucky is going undefeated, but they won't lose many.

Arkansas - W - Always a tough game with the Hawgs. Hopefully Releford's senior day ends with a victory.

So that's 10-3 in Non-conference, 10-8 in conference for a mark of 20-11. If the non-conference schedule lives up to its billing, the RPI should be in a good spot for a 10-12 type of seed. Higher if Bama can win some games in Nashville. That's assuming what we saw last night was merely an anomaly.

crimsontider said...

Agree 100%. 18-13 10-8 in the SEC is exactly what I have.

crimsontider said...

Texas Tech worries me. They should be much improved with Tubby Smith.

Msmilie said...

Talent-wise, they're probably still a bottom dweller in the Big 12. Bama's got to win that game.