Tuesday, March 05, 2019

Bama's At Large bid competition

Gonna throw a few teams we should be rooting against to make us all breathe easier come selection Sunday. You can ignore this if we win our last 2 regular season games.

NOTE- ASSUME 3-5 bids will be eaten up as conference tourneys are unpredictable. Keep an eye on the PAC-12, AAC. and MW... those 3 could add 3 teams to the mix. I'm less concerned about mid-major tourney upsets.

Above us:
- NC State- barring a collapse (root for it) they're in
- Ohio St- split the final 2 and don't get embarrassed in B1GT. Safe
- Oklahoma- They can fall to the wrong side of the bubble by losing last 2 (vs KU, @KSU) and an early flop in B12T. I'm actually expecting this to happen. Side rant, if they lose out the regular season there should NEVER be a case where 6-12 conference record gets you in the tourney.
- Ole Miss- they're in. We should actually root for them unless they play us in the SECT. They can split final 2 and not worry at all.

On the same line with us:
- St John's- wins over Nova and 2 over Marquette help... being swept by Depaul and Providence does not. They probably need 2 wins to stay on the right side of the bubble. Root for Nova or Marquette in Big East Tourney
- Utah St- finals of MW tourney is probably good enough to let them in. Root for CSU this week. Root for Nevada to win MWT
- Minnesota- losers of 6 of their last 8... and 2 games vs top 25 teams... which could put them at 8-12 in conference. Barring a split AND a semi-final run in the B1GT I don't see them surviving.

Line below:
- Arizona St- root for Zona this week against them. Root for an early exit from Pac-12T. Also, root for Washington in the tourney as this league could be a 1 bid one.
- Temple- probably the best chance of this group to move up/stay on the right side of the bubble. Win vs UCF in final regular season game and barring an early exit in AACT they should slide in.
- Seton Hall- lost 3 in a row... last 2 vs ranked teams. Need a split and a semi-final run to stay alive IMO.
- TCU- losers of 6 of their last 7. Road game at Texas. They pretty much have to win the B12T to make it

Line below BELOW:
- Clemson- get to .500 (win last 2 games) and a win in the ACCT should get them above someone in the "line below"
- St Mary's- don't see how they get an at large unless they run the WCCT finals and lots of dropping out happens above
- Murray St- They'll get in because of Ja Morant... unless they lose before OVCCG (assuming vs Belmont). Last 8 wins have been double digits.
- Furman- better win their tourney

Line below BELOW-BELOW:
- Indiana-them being listed tells you how weak the bubble is. They have to win out and pray
- Georgetown- this one can make the most headway IF they can win their final 2 (tough) and make a run in the Big East tourney
- Creighton- late run... and with winnable games in the regular season left and the chance to move to a 3 seed in Big East T, they also have a tremendous opportunity to play themselves in.
- Xavier- lost 6 in a row before winning 5 in a row. See Creighton.
Overall with the group of 3 Big East teams here... I see them cannibalizing each other with 4 from the conference making the tourney

If you skimmed through I can sum it up like this:
- win final 2 and no sweating
- beat Auburn and lose close at Hogs + 1 win in SECT- little sweating
- lose to Auburn, beat Hogs +1 win in SECT- get deodorant
- lose both, win 2 in SECT- get Right Guard antiperspirant
- lose both, win 1 in SECT- case of Natty Lights needed and some prayer if you're into that sort of thing
- lose both, 1st round SECT exit- DRINK HEAVILY! 

No comments: